I’ve been reading Goldhaber’s “What is Attention?” chapters as he posts them his blog. (Highly recommended btw.) The phrase “Attention Economics” sounds like bullshit, but I really think Goldhaber is onto something. This post isn’t about attention economics but rather a related subject I’ve pondered since I first heard the famous quote from Andy Warhol:
Q: Can everyone actually be famous for 15 minutes?
This obviously leads to another question: what constitutes “fame”? For the sake of argument I propose a few different definitions and examine each.
Some Proposed Definitions of Fame:
- You are the subject of a global television broadcast lasting at least 15 minutes.
- n > N people pay attention to you at during the same time 15 minute interval at any point in your life.
- n > N people pay attention to you for 15 minutes each, cumulatively over the course of your life.
- n > N people pay attention to you for 15 minute each, cumulatively over all time.
Where N is some arbitrarily large number, perhaps even proportionate to world population. Obviously there are other ways to define “famous” and I’m sure they’d be interesting to ponder, but I had to start somewhere.
I’ve created a google spreadsheet to share my calculations.
You are the subject of a global television broadcast lasting at least 15 minutes.
For everyone in the world alive today (6.5 billion) who is awake 1026 minutes a day for each of the 1.9M days in their life to appear on any one of the major TV channels (say 500 of them) for fifteen minutes at least once before they die would take 372 years. In this model, lots of factors are ignored in order to see if it’s even possible, like using the average #hours we watch television instead of the #hours we are awake each day. So that number is actually a lot bigger if you make the the model more realistic.
So I’d say the answer to Famous(1) is NO.
I had written up an exploration of the other three types of Fame from my list, but after discussing it privately with some esteemed colleagues I think I need to do some more work on it.
My initial approach treated the “n > N people paying attention to stuff” as a sort of Global Network of Directed Attention, where each person has one outgoing edge (their attention) which connects to another person. This forms a scale free network, so I piled up a bunch of calculations based on the power law and came up with what I think are some interesting results.
Then I ran the question by a PhD student friend of mine who got his masters in Operations Research. He naturally came up with a completely different way to look at the problem: machine scheduling. You’ve got one bin for each person, and each bin has slots for each 15 minute segment of a person’s life. You can then schedule each person’s attention to other people into those slots. The down-side to this approach compared to the scale-free network is that the answer becomes NP-hard, meaning I’m probably not going to solve it.
How would you model the problem? What other interesting definitions of fame would you consider?
I’ll elaborate on the scale-free network/power law/Global Network of Directed Attention thing in future post.